The Tall Oaks Wood Products Company is considering purchasing timberland for $5 million that would provide a future source of timber supply for the company’s operations over the next 10 years. Alternatively, for $5 million, the company could also buy timber as needed on the open market. The future cash flows from using the timber are estimated to have a present value of $6 million regardless of whether the company buys the timberland today or waits to purchase its timber as needed over the next 10 years. This means there is a $1 million net present value (NPV) of either buying the timberland now or buying the timber as needed. In other words, from a financial standpoint, the two alternative timber acquisition strategies would be equal. Now suppose that the company believes there is only a 60% chance that the environmental regulations affecting timber supply will remain unchanged. Furthermore, the company believes that there is a 30% chance these regulations will become stricter during the next 10 years and only a 10% chance that these regulations will be relaxed. A reduction in timber supply should cause an increase in both the present value of future cash flows from using the timber due to higher sales prices and an increase in the present value of the cost of purchasing the timber as needed. (Of course, the change in selling price and buying cost may not be equal.) Should regulations become stricter, the company believes the NPV from buying the timberland now would increase to $1.5 million while an NPV of buying the timber as needed would decrease to 2$0.50 million. Increases in the timber supply should have the opposite effects. Thus, should regulations become less strict, the company believes the NPV from buying the timberland now would decrease to 2$0.5 million while an NPV of buying the timber as needed would increase to $1.50 million. a. Construct a payoff matrix for this problem. b. What decision should be made according to the maximax decision rule? c. What decision should be made according to the maximin decision rule? d. What decision should be made according to the minimax regret decision rule? e. What decision should be made according to the EMV decision rule? f. What decision should be made according to the EOL decision rule? g. Construct a decision tree for this problem.
> Refer to the previous question. Create a spreadsheet model to simulate the completion times for the auditing project. Assume that activity times follow a triangular distribution and perform 500 replications on the model. a. Estimate the probability of ea
> A partner in the national accounting firm mentioned in the previous questions does not believe the time estimates for each activity can be specified with certainty. Instead, she prefers to specify a minimum, most likely, and maximum time estimate for eac
> Refer to the previous question. Suppose that each of the audit activities can be crashed by the amounts indicated in the following table. a. What is the earliest the audit could be completed and what is the incremental cost associated with this schedule
> A national accounting firm has identified the following set of activities that must occur to carry out an audit for one of their major clients a. Draw the CPM network for this problem. b. Create a spreadsheet to calculate and summarize the earliest and
> Throughout this chapter, we assumed that a project manager identifies and organizes the activities in a project, estimates the time required for each activity, then determines how quickly the project can be completed. However, the deadlines for some proj
> Refer to the previous question. Create a spreadsheet model to simulate the completion times for Koene’s move. Assume that activity times follow a triangular distribution and perform 500 replications on the model. a. Estimate the probab
> Refer to the previous question. Suppose a partner in Koene Technology does not believe the time estimates for each activity can be specified with certainty. Instead, he prefers to specify a minimum, most likely, and maximum number of days for each activi
> I hope this goes better than last time,” thought Craig Rooney as he thought about having to walk into the city council’s chambers next week. Craig is the assistant chief of police in Newport, VA and, each September, he has to provide the city council wit
> Koene Technology is a rapidly growing nanotechnology firm. The company is moving into a new building that will allow it more research lab space and improved computing facilities. The lease on the new facility has already been signed and architectural ren
> Refer to the previous question. Create a spreadsheet model to simulate the completion times for servicing cars. Assume that activity times follow a triangular distribution, and perform 500 replications on the model. a. Estimate the probability of each ac
> The activities required to service a car at Zippy-Lube can be viewed as a mini-project as summarized in the following table. The variability in the time required to perform each activity is due to the different types, sizes, and condition of the cars to
> Refer to the previous question. Suppose that Linda’s lease on her current facility expires in 20 days. The normal and crash times and costs for each activity in her moving project are summarized in the following table. By what amount sh
> Linda Madison owns Creations, a business that provides hair and nail care services in a small college town. Recently, Linda has decided to expand her business to include tanning and massage services for her clients. In order to accommodate these new serv
> A software company is moving its helpdesk operations center from Newark, New Jersey to Plano, Texas. Some of its employees will be moved to Plano and others will be terminated and replaced by new workers in Texas. The activities that must be carried out
> Aerobatic, Inc. custom designs and manufactures light aircraft. The activities involved in this process are summarized in the following table. a. Draw the activity network for this problem. b. Create a spreadsheet to calculate and summarize the earliest
> The Runabout Boat Company is considering the purchase of several units of an expensive new machine for its production facilities around the country. Before committing to this purchase, Runabout wants to set up a test facility to test the machine and make
> In this chapter, we stated that the longest path through an activity network is the critical path. Why isn’t the completion time for a project defined by the shortest path through the network? Explain your answer.
> Morley Properties is planning to build a condominium development on St. Simons Island, Georgia. The company is trying to decide between building a small, medium, or large development. The payoffs received for each size of development will depend on the m
> The Foxridge Investment Group buys and sells rental income properties in Southwest Virginia. Bill Hunter, president of Foxridge, has asked for your assistance in analyzing a small apartment building the group is interested in purchasing.The property in q
> Bob Farrell, owner of Farrell Motors, is trying to decide whether to buy an insurance policy to cover hail damage on his inventory of more than 200 cars and trucks. Thunderstorms occur frequently and they sometimes produce hail the size of golf balls tha
> A car dealer is offering the following three 2-year leasing options: Assume a customer expects to drive between 15,000 and 35,000 miles during the next 2 years according to the following probability distribution: a. Construct a payoff matrix for this p
> The Fish House (TFH) in Norfolk, Virginia, sells fresh fish and seafood. TFH receives daily shipments of farm-raised trout from a nearby supplier. Each trout costs $2.45 and is sold for $3.95. To maintain its reputation for freshness, at the end of the d
> Lori Henderson runs a specialty ski clothing shop outside of Boone, North Carolina. She must place her order for ski parkas well in advance of ski season because the manufacturer produces them in the summer months. Lori needs to determine whether to plac
> One of Philip Mahn’s investments is going to mature, and he wants to determine how to invest the proceeds of $30,000. Philip is considering two new investments: a stock mutualfund and a one-year certificate of deposit (CD). The CD is guaranteed to pay an
> Identify a consumer electronics product that you want to purchase (e.g., a TV, digital camera, tablet computer, and so on). Identify at least three models of this product that you would consider purchasing. Identify at least three criteria on which these
> Kathy Jones is planning to buy a new minivan but, after narrowing her choices down to three models (X, Y, and Z) within her price range, she is having difficulty deciding which one to buy. Kathy has compared each model against the others on the basis of
> The president of Pegasus Corporation is trying to decide which of the three candidates (denoted as candidates A, B, and C) to hire as the firm’s new vice president of marketing. The primary criteria the president is considering are each
> Hiro Tanaka is going to purchase a new car and has narrowed the decision down to three different sedans. The following table summarizes how he rates each sedan on the criteria that are most important to him. Upon reflection, Hiro decides that the weight
> Consider the following payoff matrix: Should a decision maker ever select decision alternative C? Explain your answer.
> Marissa Jones is the president and CEO of Sound’s Alive, a company that manufactures and sells a line of speakers, CD players, receivers, high-definition televisions, and other items geared for the home entertainment market. Respected throughout the indu
> Rusty Reiker is looking for a location to build a new restaurant. He has narrowed the options down to three possible locations. The following table summarizes how he rates each location on the criteria that are most important to his business. Upon refle
> Suppose that you are given the following two alternatives: a. At what value of p would you be indifferent between these two alternatives? b. Given your response to part (a), would you be classified as risk averse, risk neutral, or risk seeking? c. Suppo
> Thom DeBusk, an architect, is considering buying, restoring, and reselling a home in the Draper-Preston historic district of Blacksburg, VA. The cost of the home is $240,000 and Thom believes it can be sold for $450,000 after being restored. Thom expects
> Eagle Credit Union (ECU) has experienced a 10% default rate with its commercial loan customers (i.e., 90% of commercial loan customers pay back their loans). ECU has developed a statistical test to assist in predicting which commercial loan customers wil
> Johnstone & Johnstone (J&J) has developed a new type of hand lotion with a distinctive fragrance. Before distributing it nationally, J&J will test market the new product. The joint probability of a successful test market and high sales upon national dist
> The Mobile Oil company has recently acquired oil rights to a new potential source of natural oil in Alaska. The current market value of these rights is $90,000. If there is natural oil at the site, it is estimated to be worth $800,000; however, the compa
> From industry statistics, a credit card company knows that 0.8 of its potential cardholders are good credit risks and 0.2 are bad credit risks. The company uses discriminate analysis to screen credit card applicants and determine which ones should receiv
> Refer to the previous question. The present value (PV) of a future cash-flow value (FV) is defined as: where n is the number of years into the future in which the cash flow occurs and r is the discount rate. Suppose that the discount rate for Banisco is
> The Banis co Corporation is negotiating a contract to borrow $300,000 to be repaid in a lump sum at the end of 9 years. Interest payments will be made on the loan at the end of each year. The company is considering the following three financing arrangeme
> Bulloch County has never allowed liquor to be sold in restaurants. However, in 3 months, county residents are scheduled to vote on a referendum to allow liquor to be sold by the drink. Currently, polls indicate there is a 60% chance that the referendum w
> Throughout our discussion of regression analysis, we used the Regression command to obtain the parameter estimates that minimize the sum of squared estimation errors. Suppose that we want to obtain parameter estimates that minimize the sum of the absolut
> US Express is an overnight package delivery company based in Atlanta, Georgia. Jet fuel is one of the largest operating costs incurred by the company, and the company wants your assistance in managing this cost. The price of jet fuel varies considerably
> Give an example of a national business, political, or military leader who made a good decision that resulted in a bad outcome, or a bad decision that resulted in a good outcome.
> Southern Gas Company (SGC) is preparing to make a bid for oil and gas leasing right in a newly opened drilling area in the Gulf of Mexico. SGC is trying to decide whether to placea high bid of $16 million or a low bid of $7 million. SGC expects to be bid
> Refer to the previous question. A manufacturing engineer for MPI collected the following data on the failure rates of components X, Y, and Z in a random sample of 1,000 circuit boards: For example, the first row in this table indicates that components X
> Microproducts, Incorporated (MPI) manufactures printed circuit boards for a major PC manufacturer. Before a board is sent to the customer, three key components must be tested. These components can be tested in any order. If any of the components fail, th
> Bill and Ted are going to the beach with hopes of having an excellent adventure. Before going, they read a report by the world’s leading authority on tiger shark behavior indicating that when a tiger shark is in the vicinity of swimmers at the beach, the
> A manufacturer has two machines that make the same parts for diesel truck engines. One machine is 5 years older than the other one. The older machine runs slower and makes 35% of the parts, of which 85% are of acceptable quality and don’t require rework.
> Medical studies have shown that 10 out of 100 adults have heart disease. When a person with heart disease is given an EKG test, a 0.9 probability exists that the test will indicate the presence of heart disease. When a person without heart disease is giv
> Refer to question 10. Suppose that the consultant’s fee is $5,000 and the utility function for the owner of Morley Properties can be approximated by the exponential utility function: where the risk tolerance value R 5 100 (in $1,000s)
> Refer to question 9. Suppose that the utility function for the owner of Morley Properties can be approximated by the exponential utility function: where the risk tolerance value R 5 100 (in $1,000s). a. Convert the payoff matrix to utility values. b. W
> Benjamin Franklin once said, “In this world nothing is certain but death and taxes.” Although that may be true, there is often great uncertainty involved in when one will encounter death and how much one must pay in ta
> Refer to the previous question. Morley Properties can hire a consultant to predict the most likely level of demand for this project. This consultant has done many similar studies and has provided Morley Properties with the following joint probability tab
> This chapter presented the problem of having to decide between two job offers. The decision maker could accept the job with company A, accept the job with company B, or reject both offers and hope for a better one. What other alternatives can you think o
> Refer to questions 6 and 7 and answer the following questions: a. What is the probability that the drive-in window is empty? b. What is the probability that a customer must wait for service? c. On average, how many cars wait for service? d. On average, w
> Suppose that arrivals to a queuing system with one server follow a Poisson distribution with an average of l 5 5 per time period, and that service times follow an exponential distribution with an average service rate of m 5 6 per time period. a. Compute
> Refer to the previous question. Suppose that Road Rambler’s phone system can only keep 4 calls on hold at any time, the average profit margin of each call is $55, and sales reps cost the company $12 per hour. a. If callers who receive a busy signal tak
> Calls to the service center at AutoMax occur at a rate of 27 per hour and follow a Poisson distribution. A single operator answers the calls and can handle an average 25 calls per hour with service times following an exponential distribution. If a call a
> Suppose a product must go through an assembly line is made up of five sequential operations. The time it takes to complete each operation is normally distributed with a mean of 180 seconds and standard deviation of 5 seconds. Define the flow time to be t
> Suppose a product must go through an assembly line is made up of five sequential operations. The time it takes to complete each operation is normally distributed with a mean of 180 seconds and standard deviation of 5 seconds. Let X denote the cycle time
> Firebird Packaging Operations manufactures small plastic cups used in a popular single-cup brewing systems for coffee, tea, and hot chocolate. The cups are thermoformed with several different plastic resins including High Impact Polystyrene (HIPS). Fireb
> Meredith Shomers manages scholarship endowments for a major public university. Presently, she is trying to determine how much scholarship money may be awarded from an endowment with a current balance of $538,000. The endowment’s funds are invested in a p
> Refer to the previous question. Suppose plants 1 and 2 represent different building alternatives for the same site (i.e., only one of these plants can be built). Similarly, suppose plants 4 and 5 represent different building alternatives for another site
> A debate recently erupted about the optimal strategy for playing a game on the TV show called “Let’s Make a Deal.” In one of the games on this show, the contestant would be giventhe choice of prizes behind three closed doors. A valuable prize was behind
> One of the examples in this chapter dealt with determining the optimal reorder point for a computer monitor sold by Millennium Computer Corp. Suppose that it costs MCC $0.30 per day in holding costs for each monitor in beginning inventory, and it costs $
> Each year, the Schriber Corporation must determine how much to contribute to the company’s pension plan. The company uses a 10-year planning horizon to determine the contribution which, if made annually in each of the next 10 years, would allow for only
> The Major Motors Corporation is trying to decide whether to introduce a new midsize car. The directors of the company only want to produce the car if it has at least an 80% chance of generating a positive net present value over the next 10 years. If the
> Michael Abrams runs a specialty clothing store that sells collegiate sports apparel. One of his primary business opportunities involves selling custom screen-printed sweatshirts for college football bowl games. He is trying to determine how many sweatshi
> Amanda Green is interested in investing in the following set of mutual funds whose returns are all normally distributed with the indicated means and standard deviations: a. What is the expected return and standard deviation on a portfolio where Amanda i
> Refer to the previous question. Another type of option is the Asian option. Its payoff is not based on the price of the stock on the expiration date but, instead, on the average price of the stock over the lifetime of the option.Suppose a stock has an in
> A European call option gives a person the right to buy a particular stock at a given price (the strike price) on a specific date in the future (the expiration date). This type of call option is typically sold at the net present value of the expected valu
> Calls to the 24-hour customer support line for Richman Financial Services occur randomly following a Poisson distribution with the following average rates during different hours of the day: The Richman’s customer service representative
> Dr. Sarah Benson is an ophthalmologist who, in addition to prescribing glasses and contact lenses, performs optical laser surgery to correct nearsightedness. This surgery is fairly easy and inexpensive to perform. Thus, it represents a potential gold min
> For investment advisors, a major consideration in planning for a client in retirement is the determination of a withdrawal amount that will provide the client with the funds necessary to maintain his or her desired standard of living throughout the clien
> The owner of a local car dealership has just received a call from a regional distributor stating that a $5,000 bonus will be awarded if the owner’s dealership sells at least 10 new cars next Saturday. On an average Saturday, this dealership has 75 potent
> Executives at Meds-R-Us have decided to build a new production facility for the company’s bestselling high blood pressure drug. The problem they now face is determining the size of the facility (in terms of production capacity). Last year, the company so
> Refer to the Hungry Dawg Restaurant example presented in this chapter. Health claim costs actually tend to be seasonal, with higher levels of claims occurring during the summer months (when kids are out of school and more likely to injure themselves) and
> Vinton Auto Insurance is trying to decide how much money to keep in liquid assets to cover insurance claims. In the past, the company held some of the premiums it received ini interestbearing checking accounts and put the rest into investments that are n
> Bob Davidson owns a newsstand outside the Waterston office building complex in Atlanta, near Hartsfield International Airport. He buys his papers wholesale at $0.50 per paper and sells them for $0.75. Bob wonders what is the optimal number of papers to o
> Podcessories manufacture several accessories for a popular digital music player. The company is trying to decide whether to discontinue one of the items in this product line. Discontinuing the item would save the company $600,000 in fixed costs (comprise
> Sammy Slick works for a company that allows him to contribute up to 10% of his earnings into a tax-deferred savings plan. The company matches a portion of the contributions its employees make based on the organization’s financial performance. Although th
> Road Racer Sports, Inc. is a mail-order business dedicated to the running enthusiast. The company sends out full-color catalogs several times a year to several hundred thousand people on its mailing list. Production and mailing costs are fairly expensive
> After spending 10 years as an assistant manager for a large restaurant chain, Ray Clark has decided to become his own boss. The owner of a local submarine sandwich store wants to sell the store to Ray for $65,000 to be paid in installments of $13,000 in
> Techs burg, Inc. uses a stamping machine to manufacture aluminum bodies for lightweight, miniature aircraft used for military reconnaissance. Currently, forms in the stamping machine are changed after every 65 hours of operation or whenever a form breaks
> Fiasco Foods, Inc. is one of the largest suppliers of institutional and commercial food products in the United States. Fortunately for Fiasco, the demand for “food away from home” has been growing steadily over the pas
> Representatives from the American Heart Association are planning to go door-to-door throughout a community, soliciting contributions. From past experience, they know that when someone answers the door, 80% of the time it is a female and 20% of the time i
> Acme Equipment Company is considering the development of a new machine that would be marketed to tire manufacturers. Research and development costs for the project are expected to be about $4 million but could vary between $3 and $6 million. The market l
> Employees of Georgia-Atlantic are permitted to contribute a portion of their earnings (in increments of $500) to a flexible spending account from which they can pay medical expenses not covered by the company’s health insurance program. Contributions to
> The graph of the probability distribution of a normally distributed random variable with a mean of 20 and standard deviation of 1.5 is shown in Figure 12.5. The Excel function: also returns randomly generated observations from this distribution. a. Use
> Lynn Price recently completed her MBA and accepted a job with an electronics manufacturing company. Although she likes her job, she is also looking forward to retiring one day. To ensure that her retirement is comfortable, Lynn intends to invest $3,000 o
> The Harriet Hotel in downtown Boston has 100 rooms that rent for $150 per night. It costs the hotel $30 per room in variable costs (cleaning, bathroom items, etc.) each night a room is occupied. For each reservation accepted, there is a 5% chance that th
> The manager of Moore’s Catalog Showroom is trying to predict how much revenue will be generated by each major department in the store during the next year. The manager has estimated the minimum and maximum growth rates possible for reve
> The monthly demand for the latest computer at Newland Computers follows a normal distribution with a mean of 350 and standard deviation of 75. Newland purchases these computers for $1,200 and sells them for $2,300. It costs the company $100 to place an o
> Large Lots is planning a seven-day promotion on a discontinued model of 310 color television sets. At a price of $575 per set, the daily demand for this type of TV has been estimated as follows: Large Lots can order up to 50 of these TVs from a surplus
> The owner of a golf shop in Myrtle Beach, SC must decide how many sets of beginner golf clubs to order for the coming tourist season. Demand for golf clubs is random but follows a Poisson distribution with the average demand rates indicated in the follow
> Tarrows, Pearson, Foster, and Zuligar (TPF&Z) is one of the largest actuarial consulting firms in the United States. In addition to providing its clients with expert advice on executive compensation programs and employee benefits programs, TPF&Z
> The owner of a ski apparel store in Winter Park, CO must make a decision in July regarding the number of ski jackets to order for the following ski season. Each ski jacket costs $54 and can be sold during the ski season for $145. Any unsold jackets at th
> WVTU is a television station that has 20 thirty-second advertising slots during their regularly scheduled programming each evening. The station is now selling advertising for the first few days in November. They could sell all the slots immediately for $
> Hometown Insurance sells 10-year annuities to retirees who are looking for stable sources of investment income. Hometown invests the annuity funds it receives in an equity index fund with annual returns that are normally distributed with a mean of 9% and
> Branch banks must keep enough money on hand to satisfy customers’ cash demands. Suppose that the daily demand for cash at a branch of University Bank follows a lognormal distribution with means and standard deviation summarized as follo
