Question: The River is a literary magazine published
The River is a literary magazine published by the English Department at Tech. It has a 70-year history and enjoys an excellent reputation for providing a literary outlet for aspiring Appalachian writers in particular. However, its sales, mostly through independent bookstores and college libraries, have never been very large. Several years ago, the magazine’s advisory board decided to create a Web site and post the bimonthly issues online for free access. Due to poor economic conditions and state budget cuts, Tech recently withdrew funding for the magazine, and in order to make up for this financial loss, the magazine’s staff has decided to try to sell advertising (especially to local and regional businesses) on the magazine’s Web site. In order to sell advertising, the magazine’s staff would like to be able to provide potential advertisers with a forecast of the number of “visits†the Web site might receive in future months. Following is the number of monthly visits the Web site has received for the 24 months that it has existed: 
Develop a linear trend line forecast, an exponential smoothing forecast (a = 0.60.), and a 3-month weighted moving average (with the most recent month weighted by 0.50, the next closest month by 0.30, and the final month by 0.20). Indicate which one you believe is the most accurate forecast model and the forecast for month 25.
> The State of Virginia has instituted a series of standards of learning (SOL) tests in math, history, English, and science that all high school students must pass with a grade of 70 before they are allowed to graduate and receive their diplomas. The schoo
> The admission data for freshmen at Tech during the past 10 years are as follows: Tech’s admission objective is a class of 5,000 entering freshmen, and Tech wants to forecast the percentage of offers it will likely have to make to achiev
> The Port of Savannah is considering an expansion of its container terminal. The port has experienced the following container throughput during the past 12 years, expressed as TEUs (i.e., 20-foot equivalent units, a standard unit of measure for containers
> The Valley United Soccer Club has boys’ and girls’ travel soccer teams at all age levels up to 18 years. The club has been successful and grown in popularity over the years; however, an obstacle to its continued growth
> The Wellton Fund is a balanced mutual fund that includes a mix of stocks and bonds. Following are the year-end share prices of the fund and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) for a 20-year period: Develop a linear regression model for these data and for
> A cooking oil distributor distributes oil to major supermarkets in the region. Though a person’s daily consumption of oil seems to be almost the same, the distributor’s demand for oil fluctuates every month. The distri
> In Problem 48, one of the new products in the GreenClean line that Klorax is ready to introduce is an all-purpose cleaner, and Klorax is attempting to forecast what demand might be like 5 years into the future. However, it has no historical demand data t
> To take advantage of the burgeoning public interest in sustainability, Klorax has developed a non- synthetic line of natural cleaning products called GreenClean. One of the first sustainable products Klorax introduced was a natural cold-water detergent.
> The busiest time of the day at the Taco Town fast-food restaurant is between 11:00 A.M. and 2:00 p.M. Taco Town’s service is very labor dependent, and a critical factor for providing quick service is the number of employees on hand duri
> Liu and Fong is a global supplier of denim jeans for apparel companies around the world. Its supply chain includes cotton production in the United States, fabric manufacturing in Southeast Asia and the Pacific Rim; jeans manufacturing in the Far and Midd
> The consumer loan department at Central Union Bank and Trust wants to develop a forecasting model to help determine its potential loan application volume for the coming year. Because adjust- able-rate home mortgages are based on government long-term Trea
> Develop an adjusted exponential smoothing forecast model (a = .40 and b = .40) for the data in Problem 44 to forecast seat occupancy and compare its accuracy with the seasonally adjusted model developed in (a).
> Arrow Air is a regional East Coast airline that has collected data for the percentage of avail- able seats occupied on its flights for four quarters—(1) January–March, (2) April–June, (3) Julyâ&
> Develop an exponential smoothing model with a = .30 for the data in Problem 42 to forecast printer demand in year 11 and compare its accuracy to the linear trend line forecast developed in (a).
> Infoworks is a large computer discount store that sells computers and ancillary equipment and software in the town where State University is located. Infoworks has collected historical data on computer sales and printer sales for the past 10 years, as fo
> The Gametime Hat Company manufactures baseball caps that have various team logos in an assortment of designs and colors. The company has had monthly sales for the past 24 months as follows: Develop a forecast model using the method you believe best, and
> Apperson and Fitz is a chain of clothing stores that caters to high school and college students. It publishes a quarterly catalog and operates a Web site that features provocatively attired males and females. The Web site is very expensive to maintain, a
> The chairperson of the department of management at State University wants to forecast the number of students who will enroll in production and operations management (POM) next semester to determine how many sections to schedule. The chair has accumulated
> Employees at Precision Engine Parts Company produce parts according to exact design specifications. The employees are paid according to a piece-rate system, wherein the faster they work and the more parts they produce, the greater their chances for month
> Some members of management of the Fairface Cosmetics Firm believe that demand for its products is related to the promotional activities of local department stores where the cosmetics are sold. However, others in management believe that other factors, suc
> In Problem 36 in Chapter 6, KanTech Corporation ships electronic components in containers from seaports in Europe to U.S. ports, from which the containers are transported by truck or rail to inland ports and then transferred to an alternative mode of tra
> PAWV Power and Light has contracted with a –waste- disposal firm to have nuclear waste from its nuclear power plants in Pennsylvania disposed of at a—government—operated nuclear waste disposal site in
> Explain the numerical value of the slope of the linear regression equation in Problem 33.
> Develop a linear trend line model for the freshman applications data at State University in Problem 35. a. Does this forecast appear to be more or less accurate than the linear regression forecast developed in Problem 35? Justify your answer. b. Compute
> Administrators at State University believe that decreases in the number of freshman applications that they have experienced are directly related to tuition increases. They have collected the following enrollment and tuition data for the past decade: a.
> Compute the coefficient of determination for the data in Problem 33, and explain its meaning.
> The manager of Gilley’s Ice Cream Parlor needs an accurate forecast of the demand for ice cream. The store orders ice cream from a distributor a week ahead; if the store orders too little, it loses business, and if it orders too much, t
> Bell Inc. is a computer company that gets most of its component parts from suppliers in Southeast Asia, who ship to small warehouses called “revolvers” (for revolving inventory) near Bell’s main assem
> The DirectCast cable TV company is a national chain that services the small college town that is home to Tech, with a student population of almost 30,000. The company has generally been able to handle service calls and installations in the past, but a gr
> The Tech power plant burns coal and natural gas to generate steam and electricity for all campus buildings. The annual coal consumption at the plant has increased annually for the past 8 years due to an aggressive campus building program. The following t
> The Fastgro Fertilizer Company distributes fertilizer to various lawn and garden shops. The company must base its quarterly production schedule on a forecast of how many tons of fertilizer will be demanded from it. The company has gathered the following
> Suntrek is a global manufacturer and supplier of denim jeans to apparel retailers around the world. It purchases baled cotton around the world, ships it to its denim fabric factories, then to its denim jeans manufacturing facilities. Its cotton purchases
> A water station (1) is planned to supply a new city (13) with water through the current network of pipes and substations. The diagram below shows the water flow capacity of the different pipes of the current network in 1000 gallons per minute. Use Excel
> Bernice’s Pizza Restaurant opened the previous year, and in addition to sit-down restaurant service they filled take-out orders (picked up by customers) and some delivery orders using the owner’s car. The owner, Bernic
> A group of business students at Tech organized a student club called Prism to develop and disseminate content about business majors through a Web site they created and social media sites. Prism would like for the academic departments to use its Web site
> Carpet City wants to develop a means to forecast its carpet sales. The store manager believes that the store’s sales are directly related to the number of new housing starts in town. The manager has gathered data from county records on
> The manager of the Ramona Inn Hotel near Cloverleaf Stadium believes that how well the local Blue Sox professional baseball team is playing has an impact on the occupancy rate at the hotel during the summer months. Following are the number of victories f
> The Jersey Dairy Products Company produces cheese, which it sells to supermarkets and food- processing companies. Because of concerns about cholesterol and fat in cheese, the company has seen demand for its products decline during the past decade. It is
> Develop an exponential smoothing forecast with a = .20 for the demand data in Problem 1. Compare this forecast with the 3-month moving average computed in part (a) of Problem 1, using MAD, and indicate which forecast seems to be more accurate.
> RAP Computers assembles personal computers from generic parts it purchases at a discount, and it sells the units by phone orders it receives from customers responding to the company’s ads in trade journals. The business has developed an
> Aztec Industries has developed a forecasting model that was used to forecast during a 10-month period. The forecasts and actual demand were as follows: Measure the accuracy of the forecast by using MAD, MAPD, and cumulative error. Does the forecast metho
> The emergency room at the new Community Hospital selected every other week during the past 5 months to observe the number of patients during two parts of each week—the weekend (Friday through Sunday) and weekdays (Monday through Thursda
> The McDonald’s store at a busy mall has collected its last 10 months’ sales (in thousands of meal) data for its fast selling a la carte meal—The Feast McChicken. To provide consistent taste in chicken
> A manufacturing company produces different variations of a product at different work centers in its plant on a daily basis. Following is a network showing the various work centers in the plant, the daily capacities at each work center, and the flow of th
> LT manufactures smartphone components, which are dependent on the global demand for smart- phones. Following are the yearly global sales (in million units) for the past 8 years. Develop a linear trend line model to forecast smartphone sales for years 9,
> Dubai-fly airline operates flights from Dubai to Milan. The demand for airline seats varies from month to month. There are few peak seasonal demands, for instance, just before and after Christmas and during August and September when schools reopen after
> Metro Food Vending operates vending machines in office buildings, the airport, bus stations, colleges, and other businesses and agencies around town, and it operates vending trucks for building and construction sites. The company believes its sandwich sa
> The Northwoods Outdoor Company is a catalog sales operation that specializes in outdoor recreational clothing. Demand for its items is very seasonal, peaking during the Christmas season and during the spring. It has accumulated the following data for ord
> The Beaver Creek Pottery Company sells bowls and mugs, hand-made by Native American artisans, at a craft store and through a Web site. Making these items requires a special type of clay and a large amount of individual person-hours, so for planning purpo
> The Cat Creek Mining Company mines and ships coal. It has experienced the following demand for coal during the past 8 years: Develop an adjusted exponential smoothing model (a = .30, b = .20) and a linear trend line model and compare the forecast accurac
> Monaghan’s Pizza delivery service has randomly selected 8 weekdays during the past month and recorded orders for pizza at four different time periods per day: Develop a seasonally adjusted forecasting model for daily pizza demand and fo
> Develop a seasonally adjusted forecast for the demand data for fertilizer found in Problem 3. Then use a linear trend line model to compute a forecast estimate for demand in year 4.
> The Whistle Stop Cafe in Weems, Georgia, is well known for its popular homemade ice cream, made in a small plant in back of the cafe. People drive all the way from Atlanta and Macon to buy the ice cream. The two women who own the cafe want to develop a f
> Given the following network, with the indicated flow capacities along each branch, determine the maximum flow from source node 1 to destination node 10 and the flow along each path:
> A banana growers’ society grows banana in a region. After planting saplings, it takes around 10 months to harvest stalks of bananas. Since the production cycle is long and strong wind affects the plantation, it becomes impossible to inc
> The time between arrivals of oil tankers at a loading dock at Prudhoe Bay is given by the following probability distribution: The time required to fill a tanker with oil and prepare it for sea is given by the following probability distribution: a. Simula
> First American Bank is trying to determine whether it should install one or two drive-through teller windows. The following probability distributions for arrival intervals and service times have been developed from historical data: Assume that in the two
> Sound Warehouse in Georgetown sells CD players (with speakers), which it orders from Fuji Electronics in Japan. Because of shipping and handling costs, each order must be for five CD players. Because of the time it takes to receive an order, the warehou
> Every time a machine breaks down at the Dynaco Manufacturing Company (Problem 3), 1, 2, or 3 hours are required to fix it, according to the following probability distribution: a. Simulate the repair time for 20 weeks, and then compute the average weekly
> Simulate the decision situation described in Problem 18(a) at the end of Chapter 12 for 20 weeks, and recommend the best decision.
> Solve Problem 21 at the end of Chapter 12 by using simulation.
> In Chapter 8, Figure 8.6 shows a simplified project network for building a house, as follows: There are four paths through this network: The time parameters (in weeks) defining a triangular probability distribution for each activity are provided as follo
> The Management Science Association (MSA) has arranged to hold its annual conference at the Riverside Hotel in Orlando next year. Based on historical data, the MSA believes the number of rooms it will need for its members attending the conference is norma
> In Chapter 16, the formula for the optimal order quantity of an item, Q, given its demand, D, ordering cost, Co, and the cost of holding, or carrying, an item in inventory, Cc, is as follows: The total inventory cost formula is Ordering cost, Co, and car
> Suppose in Problem 35 that the processing cost per unit at each plant is different because of different machinery, workers’ abilities, overhead, and so on, according to the following table: There are no differentiated costs at stage 5,
> Erin Jones has $100,000 and, to diversify, she wants to invest equal amounts of $50,000 each in two mutual funds selected from a list of four possible mutual funds. She wants to invest for a 3-year period. She has used historical data from the four funds
> In Problem 23, assume that production capacity at Burlingham Mills for the Troy Clothing Company contract is normally distributed, with a mean of 320 yards per month and a standard deviation of 120 yards, and that Troy Clothing’s demand is uniformly dist
> In Problem 21, assume that the students at Randolph College have redefined the probability distributions of their dates at Salem College as follows: Physical attractiveness is uniformly distributed from 1 to 5; intelligence is defined by a triangular dis
> In Problem 20, assume that the sales volume for Western Outfitters Store is normally distributed, with a mean of 600 pairs of jeans and a standard deviation of 200; the price is uniformly distributed, with a minimum of $22 and a maximum of $28; and the v
> The Dynaco Manufacturing Company produces a product in a process consisting of operations of five machines. The probability distribution of the number of machines that will break down in a week follows: a. Simulate the machine breakdowns per week for 20
> Tracy McCoy is shopping for a new car. She has identified a particular sports utility vehicle she likes but has heard that it has high maintenance costs. Tracy has decided to develop a simulation model to help her estimate maintenance costs for the life
> For the Bigelow Manufacturing example in this chapter, re-create the simulation for the improved maintenance program shown in Table 14.11 and Exhibit 14.8 using Crystal Ball. For the improved program assume that the repair time is normally distributed wi
> For the Bigelow Manufacturing example in this chapter, re-create the simulation shown in Table 14.10 and Exhibit 14.7 using Crystal Ball. Assume that the repair time is normally distributed with a mean of 2.15 days and a standard deviation of 0.8 day. As
> Perform the Crystal Ball simulation in Problem 25, assuming that demand is normally distributed with a mean of 2.5 and a standard deviation of 1.2 laptops.
> For the ComputerWorld example in this chapter, recreate the simulation shown in Exhibit 14.2 using Crystal Ball. Assume that demand is normally distributed with a mean of 1.5 laptops and a standard deviation of 0.8. Using Crystal Ball determine average w
> Diamant Foods Company produces a variety of food prod- ucts, including a line of candies. One of its most popular candy items is Divine Diamonds, a bag of a dozen individually wrapped diamond-shaped candies made primarily from a blend of dark and milk ch
> A baseball game consists of plays that can be described as follows: Distributions for these plays for two teams, the White Sox (visitors) and the Yankees (home), are as follows: Simulate a nine-inning baseball game using the preceding information.2 Sourc
> Burlingham Mills produces denim cloth that it sells to jeans manufacturers. It is negotiating a contract with Troy Clothing Company to provide denim cloth on a weekly basis. Burlingham has established its monthly available production capacity for this co
> In Problem 21, discuss how you might assess the accuracy of the average rating for Salem College students based on only 20 simulated dates.
> Randolph College and Salem College are within 20 miles of each other, and the students at each college frequently date each other. The students at Randolph College are debating how good their dates are at Salem College. The Randolph students have sampled
> The Western Outfitters Store specializes in denim jeans. The variable cost of the jeans varies according to several factors, including the cost of the jeans from the distributor, labor costs, handling, packaging, and so on. Price also is a random variabl
> The time between arrivals of cars at the Petroco Service Station is defined by the following probability distribution: a. Simulate the arrival of cars at the service station for 20 arrivals, and compute the average time between arrivals. b. Simulate the
> The emergency room of the community hospital in Farmburg has one receptionist, one doctor, and one nurse. The emergency room opens at time zero, and patients begin to arrive some time later. Patients arrive at the emergency room according to the followin
> Compcomm, Inc., is an international communications and information technology company that has seen the value of its common stock appreciate substantially in recent years. A stock analyst would like to use simulation to predict the stock prices of Compco
> A robbery has just been committed at the Corner Market in the downtown area of the city. The market owner was able to activate the alarm, and the robber fled on foot. Police officers arrived a few minutes later and asked the owner, “How long ago did the
> The Paymore Rental Car Agency rents cars in a small town. It wants to determine how many rental cars it should maintain. Based on market projections and historical data, the manager has determined probability distributions for the number of rentals per d
> Christine Yamaguchi is the manager of the A-to-Z Office Supply Company in Charlotte. The company attempts to gain an advantage over its competitors by providing quality customer service, which includes prompt delivery of orders by truck or van and always
> Loebuck Grocery orders milk from a dairy on a weekly basis. The manager of the store has developed the following probability distribution for demand per week (in cases): The milk costs the grocery $10 per case and sells for $16 per case. The carrying cos
> A city is served by two newspapers—the Tribune and the Daily News. Each Sunday readers purchase one of the newspapers at a stand. The following matrix contains the probabilities of a customer’s buying a particular news
> Each semester, the students in the college of business at State University must have their course schedules approved by the college adviser. The students line up in the hallway outside the adviser’s office. The students arrive at the of
> University is playing Tech in their annual football game on Saturday. A sportswriter has scouted each team all season and accumulated the following data: State runs four basic plays—a sweep, a pass, a draw, and an off tackle; Tech uses
> A hypermarket sells a specific brand of mobile phones and earns a profit of AED100 per mobile. It incurs a holding cost of AED40 per mobile per month if a stocked mobile is not sold. Holding cost is a portion of rent, insurance, and other expenses. If th
> The Hoylake Rescue Squad receives an emergency call every 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 hours, according to the following probability distribution. The squad is on duty 24 hours per day, 7 days per week: a. Simulate the emergency calls for 3 days (note that this w
> A small grocery market has one checkout counter. The counter clerk takes an average of 3 minutes to serve a customer. Customers arrive at the counter at the rate of 15 per hour. The manager of the store receives feedback from customers that the wait time
> A gas station at a busy highway offers free air service for tires of cars that use the pump. The attendant checks tire pressure and inflates or deflates to the recommeded level. On an average, the attendant takes 2 minutes to check one car. Cars arrive f
> The management of Dynaco Manufacturing Company (see Problem 6) likes to have its operators working 90% of the time. What must the assembly line arrival rate be for the operators to be as busy as management would like?
> The Dynaco Manufacturing Company produces a particular product in an assembly line operation. One of the machines on the line is a drill press that has a single assembly line feeding into it. A partially completed unit arrives at the press to be worked o
> The Fort Worth Texans have won three Super Bowls in the past 5 years, including two in a row the past 2 years. As a result, sportswear such as hats, sweatshirts, sweatpants, and jackets with the Texans logo are particularly popular in Texas. The Texans o
> The Old Colony theme park has a new ride, the Double Cyclone. The ride holds 30 people in double roller coaster cars, and it takes 3.8 minutes to complete the ride circuit. It also takes the ride attendants another 3 minutes (with virtually no variation)
> The Hampton County emergency medical service (EMS) covers an area of 500 square miles with a population of over 100,000. In addition to ambulances and fire engines, the EMS is considering purchased three quick response vehicles—SUVs equipped with medical
