The Sales2 variable in the file from the previous problem was created from the Sales1 variable by multiplying by monthly seasonal factors. Basically, the summer months are high and the winter months are low. This might represent the sales of a product that has a linear trend and seasonality. a. Repeat parts a to c from the previous problem to see how well these forecasting methods can deal with trend and seasonality. b. Use Winters’ method, with various values of the three smoothing constants, to forecast the series. Can you do much better? Which smoothing constants work well? c. What can you conclude from your findings in parts a and b about forecasting this type of series?
> 16. Which of the following is not a function of a management accountant in an organization? a. Preparation of cost estimates, project planning, and analysis b. Budgetary controls and investigation c. Preparation of financial statements and cash flow stat
> A constructor _____________ parameters. a. can receive b. cannot receive c. must receive d. can receive a maximum of 10 12. A constructor _____________ overloaded. a. must be b. cannot be c. can be d. is always automatically 13. Usually, you want each i
> An object’s data items are also known as _____________. a. fields b. functions c. themes d. instances 2. You send messages or information to an object through its _____________. a. fields b. methods c. classes d. type 3.A program or class that instanti
> 11. The method public static Boolean test Value(int response) returns _____________. a. no value b. an int value c. a boolean value d. You cannot determine what is returned. 12. Which of the following could be the last legally coded line of a method dec
> Advantages to creating methods in addition to the main() method include all of the following except _____. a. the main() method is easier to follow b. all methods are prewritten, saving the programmer work c. it is easier to determine the overall intent
> 11. The remainder operator _____________. a. is represented by a forward slash b. must follow a division operation c. provides the quotient of integer division d. is represented by a percent sign 12. Which of the following operators has the lowest prece
> 1. When data cannot be changed after a class is compiled, the data is _____________. a. variable b. constant c. volatile d. mutable 2. Which of the following is not a primitive data type in Java? a. boolean b. byte c. sector d. int 3. Which of the foll
> 11. You must compile classes written in Java into ____________. a. bytecode b. source code c. Javadoc statements d. object code 12. All Java programming statements must end with a ____________. a. period b. comma c. closing parenthesis d. semicolon 13.
> 1. The most basic circuitry-level computer language is _________________. a. machine language b. Java c. high-level language d. C++ 2. Languages that let you use an easily understood vocabulary of descriptive terms, such as read, write, or add, are kno
> The ZapCon Company is considering investing in three projects. If it fully invests in a project, the realized cash flows (in millions of dollars) will be as listed in the file P04_99.xlsx. For example, project 1 requires a cash outflow of $3 million toda
> Consider the graphical solution to the product mix problem. Now imagine that another constraint—any constraint—is added. Which of the following three things are possible: (1) the feasible region shrinks; (2) the feasible region stays the same; (3) the fe
> Again continuing Problem 2, perform a sensitivity analysis where the selling prices of Basics and XPs simultaneously change by the same percentage, but the selling price of VXPs remains at its original value. Let the percentage change vary from 225% to 5
> Using the graphical solution of the product mix model as a guide, suppose there are only 2800 testing hours available. How do the answers to the previous problem change?
> There are five corner points in the feasible region for the product mix problem. We identified the coordinates of one of them: (560, 1200). Identify the coordinates of the others. a. Only one of these other corner points has positive values for both deci
> If all of the inputs in PC Tech’s product mix problem are nonnegative (as they should be for any realistic version of the problem), are there any input values such that the resulting model has no feasible solutions? (Refer to the graphical solution.)
> If you add a constraint to an optimization model, and the previously optimal solution satisfies the new constraint, will this solution still be optimal with the new constraint added? Why or why not?
> Consider an optimization model with a number of resource constraints. Each indicates that the amount of the resource used cannot exceed the amount available. Why is the shadow price of such a resource constraint always zero when the amount used in the op
> Suppose you use Solver to find the optimal solution to a maximization model. Then you remember that you omitted an important constraint. After adding the constraint and running Solver again, is the optimal value of the objective guaranteed to decrease? W
> A classification algorithm was used to predict Yes/No values for a given training data set, and then the results were applied to 100 observations in a testing data set. The actual Yes/No values and the estimated probabilities of Yes for these 100 observa
> In any optimization model such as those in this chapter, we say that the model is unbounded (and Solver will indicate as such) if there is no limit to the value of the objective. For example, if the objective is profit, then for any dollar value, no matt
> Continuing Problem 5, create a two-way data table for expected profit with order quantity along the side and unit expediting cost along the top. Allow the order quantity to vary from 500 to 4500 in increments of 500, and allow the unit expediting cost to
> Using the same data as in the previous problem, use NeuralTools, with the PNN algorithm, to perform the classification. Even though there are only 74 companies, you can still use 20% of them for testing. Then at the end of the run, respond Yes to the sen
> The file P14_07.xlsx contains data on 74 companies that have either gone bankrupt or haven’t. The data set also contains data on five frequently quoted accounting ratios. a. Create a pivot table that shows the average of each ratio, broken down by the Ye
> Continuing the previous problem, the same data have been split into two sets in the file P14_06.xlsx. The first 9500 observations are in the Training Data sheet, and the last 500 observations are in the Prediction Data sheet. In this latter sheet, the va
> A company that sells through a catalog and online through the Web has collected data on 10,000 potential customers. The data are in the file P14_05.xlsx. They include RFM (recency, frequency, and monetary) variables, which are popular in marketing resear
> Using the same admissions data in the file P14_03.xlsx, discretize the GMAT Score and Undergraduate GPA variables according to their quartiles. Then use the naïve Bayes procedure to classify the 100 applicants as Yes or No for admittance. (Remember that
> Admissions directors of graduate business programs constantly review the criteria they use to make admission decisions. Suppose that the director of a particular top-20 MBA program is trying to understand how she and her staff discriminate between those
> The file contains Gender, Age, Education, and Success (Yes/No) data of 1000 people. The purpose is to see how a classification tree method can use the first three variables to classify Success. You start with 564 Yes values and 436 No values. This is qui
> The lasagna data discussed in the chapter is repeated in the file. Instead of trying to classify a dependent variable, Have Tried, this file shows the result of clustering. Specifically, a Microsoft Data Mining Detect Categories algorithm (not discussed
> This problem lets you see how dissimilarity, the key to clustering, might be calculated and then used for prediction. The file contains data for 10 people. The value of Amount Spent for person 10 is unknown, and the ultimate purpose is to use the data fo
> Using the same beer preference data in the file P14_01.xlsx, discretize the Income and Age variables according to their quartiles. Then use the naïve Bayes procedure to classify the 100 customers as having Regular or Light preference. Based on these resu
> A pharmaceutical company manufactures two drugs at Los Angeles and Indianapolis. The cost of manufacturing a pound of each drug depends on the location, as indicated in the file. The machine time (in hours) required to produce a pound of each drug at eac
> Using the data in the file, the same data as in Problem 17, use the method in Example 14.5 to find three clusters of wine types. (Of course, don’t use the Type variable when creating clusters.) Write a short report about the clusters you find. Does the c
> Using the data in the file P14_18.xlsx, the same data as in Problem 16, use the method in Example 14.5 to find four clusters of cities. Note that there are two text variables, Crime_Trend and Unemployment_Threat. You can ignore them for this problem. Wri
> The file contains the same wine data. Instead of trying to use a classification algorithm to classify wines into the three known types (A, B, and C), it is interesting to see if a clustering algorithm can discover these known categories. The file contain
> The file P14_16.xlsx contains various data on 325 metropolitan cities in the United States. Cell comments in row 1 explain some of the variables. A Microsoft Data Mining add-in (not discussed here) was used to cluster these cities, with the results shown
> The file P14_15.xlsx contains the following information about the top 25 MBA programs (according to the 1997 Business Week Guide): percentage of applicants accepted, percentage of accepted applicants who enroll, mean GMAT score of enrollees, mean undergr
> Continuing problem 6, there is another method that has been suggested when the dependent variable has only a small percentage of one category, in this case Y(yes). This is oversampling. To do this, you train the neural net on a subset that is more equall
> Neural nets (and NeuralTools) can also be used when the dependent variable is continuous, not categorical. In this case, the method is an alternative to multiple regression. The file P14_13.xlsx contains fairly old Boston housing data that appears freque
> Continuing the previous problem, the file P14_12.xlsx contains the same wine data. Using a Microsoft Data Mining add-in (not discussed here), a decision tree classification was performed (with 0% of the cases held out for testing). You can see the result
> The file P14_11.xlsx contains data on 178 wines. They are categorized into three types, labeled A, B, and C. The rest of the variables are numeric properties of the wines. Use NeuralTools to classify these wines. Use the PNN algorithm, and check the Vari
> The file P14_10.xlsx contains customer data on acceptance of products with various attributes. This is explained more fully in the file. There are three potential Yes/No dependent variables, Accept1, Accept2, and Accept3. To keep the outputs straight, it
> A small appliance manufacturer must meet (on time) the following demands: quarter 1, 3000 units; quarter 2, 2000 units; quarter 3, 4000 units. Each quarter, up to 2700 units can be produced with regular-time labor, at a cost of $40 per unit. During each
> The file P14_01.xlsx contains data on 100 consumers who drink beer. Some of them prefer light beer, and others prefer regular beer. A major beer producer believes that the following variables might be useful in discriminating between these two groups: ge
> We have discussed linear and exponential trend lines. Another popular choice is a power trend line, also called a constant elasticity trend line. This trend line has the form y = axb, and it has the property that when x increases by 1%, y changes by a co
> The management of a technology company is trying to determine the variable that best explains the variation of employee salaries using a sample of 52 full-time employees; see the file P13_08.xlsx. Estimate simple linear regression equations to identify w
> The file P13_07.xlsx contains monthly values of the U.S. national debt (in dollars) from 1993 to early 2010. Fit an exponential growth curve to these data. Write a short report to summarize your findings. If the U.S. national debt continues to rise at th
> Do the sales prices of houses in a given community vary systematically with their sizes (as measured in square feet)? Answer this question by estimating a simple regression equation where the sales price of the house is the dependent variable, and the si
> The file P13_52.xlsx contains data on a motel chain’s revenue and advertising. a. Use these data and multiple regression to make predictions of the motel chain’s revenues during the next four quarters. Assume that advertising during each of the next four
> The file P13_50.xlsx contains five years of monthly data for a company. The first variable is Time (1–60). The second variable, Sales1, has data on sales of a product. Note that Sales1 increases linearly throughout the period, with only a minor amount of
> Management of a home appliance store wants to understand the growth pattern of the monthly sales of a new technology device over the past two years. The managers have recorded the relevant data in the file. Have the sales of this device been growing line
> Pernavik Dairy produces and sells a wide range of dairy products. Because a government regulatory board sets most of the dairy’s costs and prices, most of the competition between the dairy and its competitors takes place through advertising. The controll
> Each year, a shoe manufacturing company faces demands (which must be met on time) for pairs of shoes as shown in the file P03_40.xlsx. Employees work three consecutive quarters and then receive one quarter off. For example, a worker might work during qua
> The Wilhoit Company has observed that there is a linear relationship between indirect labor expense and direct labor hours. Data for direct labor hours and indirect labor expense for 18 months are given in the file P13_48.xlsx. At the start of month 7, a
> The file P13_47.xlsx contains monthly cost accounting data on overhead costs, machine hours, and direct material costs. This problem will help you explore the meaning of R2 and the relationship between R2 and correlations. a. Create a table of correlatio
> Confederate Express is attempting to determine how its monthly shipping costs depend on the number of units shipped during a month. The file P13_46.xlsx contains the number of units shipped and total shipping costs for the past 15 months. a. Use regressi
> In the 1994 congressional election, the Republican candidate outpolled the Democratic candidate by 400 votes (excluding absentee ballots). The Democratic candidate outpolled the Republican candidate by 500 absentee votes. The Republican candidate sued (a
> The auditor of Kaefer Manufacturing uses regression analysis during the analytical review stage of the firm’s annual audit. The regression analysis attempts to uncover relationships that exist between various account balances. Any such relationship is su
> The belief that larger majorities for an incumbent president in a presidential election help the incumbent’s party increase its representation in the House and Senate is called the coattail effect. The file P13_43.xlsx gives the percent by which each pre
> The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an
> The auditor of Kiely Manufacturing is concerned about the number and magnitude of year-end adjustments that are made annually when the financial statements of Kiely Manufacturing are prepared. Specifically, the auditor suspects that the management of Kie
> The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the pr
> The file lists the monthly sales for a company (in millions of dollars) for a 10-year period. a. Fit an exponential trend line to these data. b. By what percentage do you estimate that the company will grow each month? c. Why can’t a high rate of exponen
> Again continuing Problem 2, suppose that you want to force the optimal solution to be integers. Do this in Solver by adding a new constraint. Select the decision variable cells for the left side of the constraint, and in the middle dropdown list, select
> Let Yt be the sales during month t (in thousands of dollars) for a photography studio, and let Pt be the price charged for portraits during month t. The data are in the file P13_39.xlsx. a. Use regression to fit the following model to these data: Yt = a
> The file P13_38.xlsx lists the average salary for each Major League Baseball team from 2004 to 2009, along with the number of team wins in each of these years. a. Rearrange the data so that there are four long columns: Team, Year, Salary, and Wins. There
> Callaway Golf is trying to determine how the price of a set of clubs affects the demand for clubs. The file P13_37.xlsx contains the price of a set of clubs (in dollars) and the monthly sales (number of sets sold). a. Assume the only factor influencing m
> When potential workers apply for a job that requires extensive manual assembly of small intricate parts, they are initially given three different tests to measure their manual dexterity. The ones who are hired are then periodically given a performance ra
> The file P13_35.xlsx contains the amount of money spent advertising a product (in thousands of dollars) and the number of units sold (in millions) for eight months. a. Assume that the only factor influencing monthly sales is advertising. Fit the followin
> A small computer chip manufacturer wants to forecast monthly operating costs as a function of the number of units produced during a month. The company has collected the 16 months of data in the file P13_34.xlsx. a. Determine an equation that can be used
> Management of a home appliance store would like to understand the growth pattern of the monthly sales of Blu-ray disc players over the past two years. Managers have recorded the relevant data in the file P13_33.xlsx. a. Create a scatterplot for these dat
> A power company located in southern Alabama wants to predict the peak power load (i.e., the maximum amount of power that must be generated each day to meet demand) as a function of the daily high temperature (X). A random sample of 25 summer days is cho
> Many companies manufacture products that are at least partially produced using chemicals (e.g., paint, gasoline, and steel). In many cases, the quality of the finished product is a function of the temperature and pressure at which the chemical reactions
> A version of simple exponential smoothing can be used to predict the outcome of sporting events. To illustrate, consider pro football. We first assume that all games are played on a neutral field. Before each day of play, we assume that each team has a r
> A textile company produces shirts and pants. Each shirt requires three square yards of cloth, and each pair of pants requires two square yards of cloth. During the next two months the following demands for shirts and pants must be met (on time): month 1,
> The file contains monthly data on production levels and production costs during a four-year period for a company that produces a single product. Use simple regression on all of the data to see how Total Cost is related to Units Produced. Use the resultin
> The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building materials (which includes retail sales of building materials, hardware and garden supply stores, and mobile home dealers). a. Is seasonality present in these d
> The file P13_28.xlsx contains monthly retail sales of U.S. liquor stores. a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters’ method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.
> The file contains yearly data on the proportion of Americans under the age of 18 living below the poverty level. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the bes
> The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel Agency. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecas
> The file P13_25.xlsx contains the quarterly numbers of applications for home mortgage loans at a branch office of Northern Central Bank. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you th
> Simple exponential smoothing with = 0.3 is being used to forecast sales of digital cameras at Lowland Appliance. Forecasts are made on a monthly basis. After August camera sales are observed, the forecast for September is 100 cameras. Suppose 120 camer
> You have been assigned to forecast the number of aircraft engines ordered each month by Commins Engine Company. At the end of February, the forecast is that 100 engines will be ordered during April. During March, 120 engines are ordered. Using a 5 0.3 an
> The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next y
> The file P13_21.xlsx contains the weekly sales of rakes at a hardware store for a two-year period. Use the moving averages method, with spans of your choice, to forecast sales for the next 30 weeks. Does this method appear to track sales well? If not, wh
> A company manufactures two products on two machines. The number of hours of machine time and labor depends on the machine and product as shown in the file. The cost of producing a unit of each product depends on which machine produces it. These unit cost
> The file P13_20.xlsx contains the monthly sales of iPod cases at an electronics store for a two-year period. Use the moving averages method, with spans of your choice, to forecast sales for the next six months. Does this method appear to track sales well
> The file contains five years of monthly data on sales (number of units sold) for a particular company. The company suspects that except for random noise, its sales are growing by a constant percentage each month and will continue to do so for at least th
> The file P13_19.xlsx contains the weekly sales of a particular brand of paper towels at a supermarket for a one-year period. a. Using a span of 3, forecast the sales of this product for the next 10 weeks with the moving averages method. How well does thi
> The file P13_18.xlsx contains data on over 200 movies that came out in 2006 and 2007. Create a new variable Total Revenue that is the sum of Total US Gross, International Gross, and US DVD Sales. How well can this new variable be predicted from the data
> The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving
> Suppose that a regional express delivery service company wants to estimate the cost of shipping a package (Y) as a function of cargo type, where cargo type includes the following possibilities: fragile, semi fragile, and durable. Costs for 15 randomly ch
> Stock market analysts are continually looking for reliable predictors of stock prices. Consider the problem of modeling the price per share of electric utility stocks (Y). Two variables thought to influence this stock price are return on average equity (
> An antique collector believes that the price received for a particular item increases with its age and with the number of bidders. The file P13_14.xlsx contains data on these three variables for 32 recently auctioned comparable items. Estimate a multiple
> A trucking company wants to predict the yearly maintenance expense (Y ) for a truck using the number of miles driven during the year (X1) and the age of the truck (X2, in years) at the beginning of the year. The company has gathered the data given in the
> Suppose you are an analyst for a company that produces four products, and you are trying to decide how much of each product to produce next month. To model this decision problem, you need the unit variable production cost for each product. After some dig
> A company that builds sailboats wants to determine how many sailboats to build during each of the next four quarters. The demand during each of the next four quarters is as follows: first quarter, 160 sailboats; second quarter, 240 sailboats; third quart
> The manager of a commuter rail transportation system was recently asked by her governing board to determine which factors have a significant impact on the demand for rides in the large city served by the transportation network. The system manager collect
> Sometimes curvature in a scatterplot can be fit adequately (especially to the naked eye) by several trend lines. We discussed the exponential trend line, and the power trend line is discussed in the previous problem. Still another fairly simple trend lin
> The file contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by a travel agency. a. Does a linear trend appear to fit these data well? If so, estimate and interpret the linear trend model for this time series. Also, interpret the R2 and se values. b. Pr