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Question: On the morning of November 10, 2002,


On the morning of November 10, 2002, Jon Thomas, market analyst for the Mexico leisure markets, canceled more than 300 seats “illegally” reserved on two flights to Acapulco. All of the seats on Jon’s Acapulco flights were booked by the same sales representative under a corporate name, Uniden Corporation. Jon could tell that the sales representative reserved space one passenger at a time using the relevant available fare; some seats were reserved at round-trip fares of more than $2,000 per person. By using a special corporate name field, the sales representative used a common gaming technique to suspend auto-cancellation and instant purchase payment programs that are required for all individual bookings by SABRE (semi-automated business research environment), American Airlines’ (AA’s) customer reservation system. Jon felt justified in canceling this space, because he previously had denied the group-space request and the sales representative subsequently violated established rules regarding the reservation of space for large groups.
No more than 24 hours after Jon canceled the Uniden Corporation’s space, he received an irate phone call from Patty Dial, the Dallas–Fort Worth area regional sales manager. Uniden, a local Fort Worth–based company, needed more than 300 seats to Acapulco for its annual sales incentive trip. Jon faces the conflict of whether to accept or deny large groups each day, and he realizes that his market judgment is all part of managing yield for each flight. The Uniden group issue escalated to higher levels of management when Uniden, a major corporate customer for AA, found out that space promised by AA’s sales representative had been canceled. With the customer relations issue in mind, Jon entered a negotiation process with Patty to reallocate space.
Normal group reservation procedure requires the sales representative to send an electronic message to the yield management analyst to request a block of space on a flight. The yield management analyst’s prerogative is to approve the request and block space for the group or to deny that request. The yield management analyst uses a variety of decision support systems based on historical market activity to make this decision. From the sales representatives’ perspectives, capturing this group is a clear victory, because it drives market share through increased sales volume for their regions. From the yield manager’s perspective, filling the plane with one group at the same fare on a peak-period flight is a wasted opportunity to use excess demand and the market’s limited capacity to maximize revenue per passenger. Unfortunately, sales representatives can fool SABRE into accepting group reservations without the yield manager’s approval. As in Jon’s case, a sales representative can book seats in blocks of fewer than 10 passengers, set up a corporate name field in the reservation that suspends all auto-cancellation programs, establish a sales contract, and negotiate a special off-tariff price for the group regardless of the fares listed in each reservation.
Conflicting corporate objectives for sales representatives and yield managers is a major source of frustration for a yield management analyst. AA’s sales representatives establish monthly revenue and passenger goals to meet progressively higher market share objectives. Sales representatives maintain relationships with large corporate clients and travel agencies, and they implement volume- and revenue-based discount programs for large corporate accounts and travel agencies. AA’s yield management analyst attempts to maximize aircraft utilization (revenue per passenger and load factor at the same time) to improve overall market revenue. The yield management analyst has very little contact with the end customer and uses decision support systems to manipulate pricing and inventory allocation programs. The sales representative’s goal is stimulation of sales, while the yield management analyst’s goal is sales optimization. Jon and Patty’s conflict highlights a situation in which yield management and sales objectives come in direct conflict and the system breaks down.
Yield management is an ideal operating strategy for companies that face temporary imbalances between capacity and demand, spoilage (i.e., a product that must be used immediately), and high fixed costs/low variable costs. Yield management enables companies to maximize use of constrained productive capacity with a discriminating eye on product yield.
Each day, Jon faces the decision of whether to fill a plane early with lower fares or to save space for higher-revenue passengers.

YIELD MANAGEMENT IN THE AIRLINE INDUSTRY
Passenger demand often outpaces capacity during peak seasons, days, or other times, as in Jon’s Acapulco market. In essence, airlines face temporary imbalances between capacity and demand on a daily basis. In the situation that Jon faces, only Aeromexico, Mexicana, and AA have direct flights to Mexico from Dallas. During low-season periods, it is difficult to fill these planes, whereas in high season, there is more demand than the total market capacity can handle. Clearly, AA faces high fixed costs and low variable costs, because adding one more passenger to a flight costs very little compared with the fixed costs of providing and maintaining the scheduled aircraft service. Finally, once the airplane pulls away from the gate, all of the empty seats can never be sold, and this results in spoil- age. When faced with excess demand and limited capacity, the yield management analyst may “choose” what traffic is most desirable to optimize the total revenue on each flight. The different levels of yield management sophistication between airlines is the source of a competitive advantage in some highly competitive markets.
From mid-November through the end of May, Jon’s Mexico leisure market enters its peak season and provides an excellent opportunity for textbook yield management strategies. During the time that this case covers, AA has a total of nine daily round-trip flights to Acapulco, Cancun, and Puerto Vallarta. Jon is in charge of setting all the fares connecting Mexico with the rest of the world as well as managing the inventory control. Each origin–destination market, such as Dallas–Cancun, has more than 30 fares to maintain. In general, all airlines use price discrimination and yield management to maximize revenue. By maintaining a tiered-fare structure, the yield management analyst can force passengers to pay higher prices in times of greater demand.
Jon helps AA to maintain a tiered, market-based fare structure that leverages the price sensitivities and flexibility of its business and leisure customer segments. Fare rules and prices are differentiated based on the time and date of the flight, origin of the passenger, and historical demand patterns in that market. Table 11.11 outlines the different behavior of the two passenger segments.
Table 11.11: Behavior of Airline Passenger Segments
Leisure Passenger ____________ Business Passenger
Price-sensitive …………………….……………..… Price-insensitive
Advance booking …………….……………………. Last minute booking
Flexible day and time …………………….......... Inflexible on day and time
Long trips ……………….……........................... Short trips
Discretionary travel …………….………........... Time-dependent travel
Consults travel agents …………………………… Frequent flyer and knows destination
Travels over weekends …………………………… Weekday travel only
Seasonal travel …………………………………..… Less seasonal
Little loyalty ………………………………………… Loyalty based on frequent flyer credit

Facing spoilage, high fixed costs/low variable costs, and temporary demand imbalances, airlines use both demand and capacity management to maximize revenue. Airlines use three yield management tools to maximize revenue and sell the “right” fares to the “right” passengers: “overbooking, dis- count allocation, and traffic management.”13 To execute price discrimination with a tiered-fare structure, the airplane capacity is divided into different sections, regardless of where the passenger sits (unless the passenger is in business or first class). The yield management analyst spreads the available fares over the sections (i.e., discount allocation) and uses overbooking and traffic management strategies to maximize revenue.
Taking passenger reservations beyond the true capacity of the airplane to ensure a full flight is referred to as overbooking. This strategy, based on seasonally adjusted historical data, accounts for expected no-shows, last-minute cancellations, and missed connections. Overbooking generates a tremendous amount of incremental revenue for the airline, and it provides airline travelers with greater choice. More flights and fares are made available to a greater number of passengers. In Jon’s Mexico leisure markets, levels of overbooking average approximately 25 percent more than capacity and can reach as high as 50 percent. The overbooking level typically starts off high 6 months before departure of a flight and slowly declines as bookings turn over, then restricts excess sales, and forces “selling up” during periods closer to departure.
Discount allocation works together with traffic management to spread the tiered-fare structure over the different inventory sections of a plane. Discount allocation attempts to save seats for higher-valued, last-minute business customers who are willing to pay more than the discounted price. AA’s Boeing 737, which is the aircraft used in Jon’s Mexico markets, holds 100 passengers: 12 in first class and 88 in coach. On a typical flight, Jon may have two or three separate fares for first-class passengers and 25 different fares for coach passengers. AA’s traffic management or indexing system automatically spreads Jon’s fares over the plane’s inventory sections to provide more inventory for higher-paying and less inventory for lower-paying passengers when faced with excess demand. Traffic management or AA’s indexing system also values long-haul, higher- paying passengers more than short-haul passengers, and it provides increased inventory availability for the higher fares.
Overbooking and discount allocation levels are set differently based on historical demand patterns for the particular flight’s departure time, day of week, days until departure, and season of departure. The levels change daily for each flight in AA’s expansive system based on fluctuating demand. Jon is responsible for overriding system decisions and implementing different and new discount allocation and traffic management strategies to improve the average revenue per passenger and the load factor of his market. Specifically, Jon decides what fares to file for each passenger group, what restrictions to apply to each fare, how many seats to save between higher- and lower-valued fares, increased availability for longer-haul and high-demand markets, and inventory restriction for lower- valued fares.
SABRE opens flights for sale more than 300 days before departure. Maintaining yield in a volatile market, such as Jon’s Mexico leisure markets, adds increased uncertainty because of the large fluctuation and less predictable nature of the historical demand patterns. Jon’s Mexico leisure markets are especially unpredictable, because frequent yet dispersed group movements distort decision support system inventory projections, average demand, overbooking levels, and dis- counted seat allocation.

Assignment
Read the following instructions for the Yield Management Game. Your instructor will provide passenger data and a tally sheet for a class exercise on “game day.”

Yield Management Game and Instructions
The yield management game illustrates the trade-off between overbooking (selling more than capacity) and spoilage (having idle capacity), with the objective of maximizing revenue when faced with excess demand in the form of various revenues per passenger and different passenger volumes. This particular game focuses on airline capacity management, but is applicable to all fixed capacity services (e.g., hotels and cruise ships).
When allocating seats to prospective passengers, the yield management analyst confronts a problem of maximizing total revenue for each flight. This includes capturing the ideal mix of discount and premium passengers at full capacity utilization without overselling too many customers. The objective of revenue maximization is simple (fill the airplane with the highest paying passengers), but uncertainty makes it a challenge.
Specifically, historical booking trends in the airline industry indicate that the more flexible discount or leisure traveler makes reservations far in advance of departure, while the inflexible premium or business traveler waits until the last minute, often walking up to the plane at the time of departure. To capitalize on this passenger behavior, the airlines have exercised price discrimination to differentiate the passengers with advance purchase, time-of-day, and duration of stay requirements. While price discrimination helps the airline to manage its capacity constrained resource, it does not address how many seats to sell each customer segment—business or leisure passengers.
To further complicate the yield management analyst’s task of maximizing total revenue, last minute cancellations, passengers missing connections (misconnect), and no-shows threaten to “spoil” (empty seats) seats and lose potential revenue. You will be using the strategies of discount allocation and overbooking to address this problem.
Discount allocation is necessary because a plane can be filled long before departure with discount passengers—clearly not a revenue maximizing strategy. Therefore, the yield management analyst attempts to “save” seats for the last-minute premium demand by allocating only a certain amount of seats to early-booking leisure passengers. While overbooking helps overcome spoilage, it opens the possibility for over-sales. The yield management analyst attempts to weigh the cost of an over-sale against the cost of “spoiling” seats or losing potential revenue from an additional sale. The analyst prefers to oversell the flight up to the point where the over-sale cost equals the additional revenue of adding a passenger.
In this game, you will act as the yield management analyst in charge of a pseudo-flight. Based on the historical booking pattern for your flight, leisure passenger demand, typically large groups, appears as far out as 100 days before departure up until 14 days before departure. Business passenger demand enters the market closer to departure at approximately nine days prior to departure up until the time of departure. Other historical market statistics for your plane show that the average misconnect, no-show, and cancellation rate for this peak season flight is 20 percent and the average revenue per passenger is $400.
Both over-sales and spoilage cost the airline revenue: over- sales are a direct expense, while spoilage is lost potential revenue. The higher the number of over-sales, the more money gate agents must pay to get passengers off the plane. Your objective is to maximize total revenue generated on this flight.

GAME FACTS
Airplane Capacity: 100 seats
Historical Market Information:
Average no-show, misconnect, and cancellation rate: 20 percent
Average revenue per passenger: $400
Spoilage penalty: $200 for each empty seat
Over-sale penalty:
1–5 over-sales ………… $200 per passenger
6–10 ….………………… $500
10–15 ………………..… $800
16+………………….… $1,000

Game Phases
The game will be played in three phases reflecting the different time periods prior to departure. Phase I is total passenger demand received outside of 13 days prior to departure. Phase II is total passenger demand between 13 days prior to departure and the day of departure. Historical market trends suggest that large groups and families make reservations during Phase I, while individuals and business passengers make reservations during Phase II. Phase III shows you the number of passengers who actually show up for the flight and their resulting revenue contribution.
Objective: Maximize Total Revenue!


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